Per the The Athletic playoff simulator –a simulator for the playoffs that has updated predictions everyday–the Patriots currently have a projected 67% chance at making the Super Bowl, and a 30% chance at winning the Super Bowl. They are projected 2nd overall to win the Super Bowl, only behind the Seattle Seahawks who have a 36% chance.
After Week 18, the final week of the regular season, the Patriots ended the season with a crucial 38-10 win over the Miami Dolphins, concluding their record of 14-3 in the season. They won the American Football Conference East for the first time since 2019, ended 2nd in the AFC, and placed 3rd overall in the whole National Football League (NFL). In the postseason so far, they’ve taken on both the LA Chargers at Gillette Stadium in the Wildcard round, winning 16-3, and the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, winning 28-16. The Patriots are set to take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship in Denver on Sunday, January 25th.
The Patriots have been on a losing streak for several years. Until this year, when they hired Coach Mike Vrabel.
The month of January 2025 started with the Patriots firing Jerod Mayo on the 5th, and on January 12th, they hired Mike Vrabel as their new head coach. Vrabel played in the NFL for 14 seasons including 8 seasons with the Patriots. He then began his coaching career in college football, coaching for the Ohio University before shifting gears into coaching for the NFL. He coached for the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and finally the Cleveland Browns before being hired by the Patriots.
On February 6th, 2025, The new coaching staff was finalized with the guidance of Vrabel. Only four coaches from the 2024 season remained: two special teams coaches, Coordinator Jeremy Springer & Assistant Tom Quinn, and defensively, one general assistant and moved Ben McAdoo from the offensive to defensive side. Vrabel then brought in past coaches he’s worked with including defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, whom he had worked with at Tennessee. Offensively, Vrabel brought back Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, returning for the third time and spending 14 non-consecutive seasons with the Patriots, including this season. He also brought in offensive line coach Doug Marrone and tight ends coach/passing game coordinator, Thomas Brown as well as a former offensive coordinator as the wide receivers coach, Todd Downing. All four of these coaches have also had some time as a head coach in the past. Offensively, the only coach returning from the 2024 season was assistant offensive line coach Robert Kugler. Vrabel also had John Streitcher join this season as the vice president of football operations and strategy as well as Ryan Cowden as vice president of player personnel to work with Vrabel and Eliot Wolf (Executive Vice President of Player Personnel).
March 9th through the 12th was the start of free agency. The Patriots signed linebacker Harold Landry III from the Tennessee Titans and defensive tackle Milton Williams from the Philadelphia Eagles, making him the highest paid player in franchise history at a 4 year, $104 million contract; $63 million guaranteed with a $24 million signing bonus. They also signed right tackle Morgan Moses from the New York Jets, wide receiver Mack Hollins from the Buffalo Bills, and backup quarterback Josh Dobbs from the San Francisco 49ers.
Throughout mid-March, free agency continued including players who did not return. The Patriots released longtime Center David Andrews, after ten years who had only played with the Patriots. As free agents, both cornerback Jonathan Jones and defensive end Deatrich Wise signed with the Washington Commanders, marking the end of their time with New England. At the end of March, the Patriots released linebacker and former captain, Ja’Whaun Bentley. Finally, the last player they released was long snapper, Joe Cardona, ending his 10 seasons with the Patriots.
On March 25, the Patriots signed star wide receiver and four time Pro Bowler, Stefon Diggs to a three-year, $69 million contract with $26 million guaranteed, marking a huge addition to the Patriots offense. On April 3rd, the final trade of the 2025 off-season went through, where, projected at the time, third-string quarterback Joe Milton got traded to the Dallas Cowboys in return for a fifth and seventh round pick for the upcoming draft.
In the 2025 NFL draft, the Patriots selected left offensive tackle Will Campbell, running back TreVeyon Henderson, wide receiver Kyle Williams, center Jared Wilson, kicker Andy Borregales, and finally long snapper Julian Ashby. Also to note, the Patriots signed many undrafted free agents alongside these draft picks.
The Patriots had a very busy 2025 offseason which led to people questioning how good they were going to be this season. Little to no one predicted that they would now be facing the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship with a Super Bowl appearance opportunity on the line. With a reshaped coaching staff and player roster, the New England Patriots have delivered unexpected performances week after week. Now, they find themselves just two wins away from being on top again, silencing all the fans and league doubts from earlier in the season.
